منابع مشابه
Universally Rational Belief Hierarchies
In a recent paper, Tsakas (2012) introduced the notion of rational beliefs. These are Borel probability measures that assign a rational probability to every Borel event. Then, he constructed the corresponding Harsanyi type space model that represents the rational belief hierarchies. As he showed, there are rational types that are associated with a non-rational probability measure over the produ...
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In this paper we introduce and formalise dynamic belief hierarchies. We give a formal deenition of beliefs, which requires that they are coherent; that is, that each belief is jointly consistent with every other belief which the agent considers at least as reliable. Thus an agent's beliefs cannot be deened independently, but only with reference to the agent's existing belief hierarchy. We then ...
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A simple model of rational belief holds that: (i) an instantaneous snapshot of an ideally rational belief system corresponds to a probability distribution; and (ii) rational belief change occurs by Bayesian conditionalization. But a priori probability distributions of the Kolmogorov sort cannot distinguish between propositions that are simply true from propositions that are necessarily true. Fu...
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Some criticisms that have been raised against the Cox approach to probability theory are addressed. Should we use a single real number to measure a degree of rational belief? Can beliefs be compared? Are the Cox axioms obvious? Are there counterexamples to Cox? Rather than justifying Cox’s choice of axioms we follow a different path and derive the sum and product rules of probability theory as ...
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Theories of rational belief revision recently proposed by Gärdenfors and Nebel illuminate many important issues but impose unnecessarily strong standards for correct revisions and make strong assumptions about what information is available to guide revisions. We reconstruct these theories according to an economic standard of rationality in which preferences are used to select among alternative ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Mathematical Economics
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0304-4068
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2013.10.005